class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide .title[ # 5. Protecting Area in a World of Change ] .author[ ### Jasper Slingsby, BIO3014S ] .date[ ### 2025-08-20 ] --- class: center, middle Is putting a fence around it enough? --- ## Protected area effectiveness Protected Areas (PAs) cover ~17% of land and ~8% of oceans ***BUT*** Climate change is reshaping ecosystems and undermining their effectiveness at protecting biodiversity... --- **Key Questions:** 1. How does climate change affect PAs? 2. How can we manage these impacts? 3. Can PAs contribute to climate solutions? 4. How should we rethink conservation in a changing climate? --- ## Learning Objectives By the end of this lecture, students should be able to: - Explain how climate change threatens biodiversity inside PAs. - Assess the role of PAs in both adaptation and mitigation. - Critically evaluate strategies for climate-smart conservation. --- ## The Assumptions of Protecting Area... - Setting land aside should: - Safeguard species and ecosystems. - Provide ecosystem services. - But this assumed: - Habitats and species ranges are stable. - Static boundaries suffice. --- ## The Problem IPCC diagram? --- .pull-left[ ## Climate Change Velocity ] .pull-right[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/loarie1.webp" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- ## Climate Change Impacts on PAs **Direct impacts:** - Species loss, or range shifts towards cooler areas. - Phenological mismatches (e.g. flowers and pollinators). - Habitat loss (corals, alpine, Arctic). **Indirect impacts:** - Invasive species. - Disturbance regimes (fire, storms, pests). - Hydrological change. --- ## Direct impacts - Rachel Garcia paper --- ## Direct impacts - Higgins 1999 invasives paper --- ## Case Study: Kruger National Park - Altered rainfall and fire regimes. - Shifts in vegetation and herbivore dynamics. - Management challenge: balancing biodiversity, tourism, and resilience. --- class: center ## Detecting climate impacts? <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/medecos1.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .left[.footnote[[Slingsby et al. 2021](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.05.017) and _in prep_. - _Requires a model for how the local ecosystem should behave!_]] --- class: center ## Detecting climate impacts? <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/medecos2.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .left[.footnote[[Slingsby et al. 2021](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.05.017) and _in prep_. - _Requires a model for how the local ecosystem should behave!_]] --- class: center ## Detecting climate impacts? <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/medecos3.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .left[.footnote[[Slingsby et al. 2021](http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2020.05.017) and _in prep_. - _Requires a model for how the local ecosystem should behave!_]] --- .left-column[ ## Assessing Park-level Climate Vulnerability? ] .right-column[ <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/coldrey2022.jpg" alt="There's more to the picture than just the impacts..." width="100%" /> <p class="caption">There's more to the picture than just the impacts...</p> </div> ] .footnote[[Coldrey et al 2022](https://doi.org/10.1111/cobi.13941)] --- ## Protecting Areas under Climate Change **Adaptation options** - Climate refugia. - Corridors and connectivity. - Dynamic, adaptive management. --- ## Protected Areas and Climate Mitigation? **Mitigation roles:** - Carbon storage (forests, peatlands, mangroves). - Avoided deforestation. - REDD+ and policy integration. --- ## Protected Areas and Climate Mitigation? <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="data:image/png;base64,#images/duncanson5.webp" alt="Differences in Aboveground Biomass Density (AGBD), forest height, canopy cover, and Plant Area Index (PAI) between PAs and matched unprotected areas." width="70%" /> <p class="caption">Differences in Aboveground Biomass Density (AGBD), forest height, canopy cover, and Plant Area Index (PAI) between PAs and matched unprotected areas.</p> </div> .footnote[[Duncanson et al. 2023](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-38073-9)] --- ## Climate Policy Context - **Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework** (30x30). - **Paris Agreement** synergies. - Nature-based solutions at global scale. --- ## Traditional vs. Climate-Smart PAs .pull-left[ ### Traditional - Isolated reserves - Static boundaries - Species assumed stable - Vulnerable to climate change ] ️ .pull-right[ ### Climate-Smart - Networks & connectivity - Refugia & buffer zones - Adaptive management - Integrated with people & landscapes - Mitigation via carbon storage ] --- ## Wrap-up - Climate change undermines the static PA model. - Climate-smart approaches require connectivity, adaptation, and integration. - Conservation may need to shift focus from protecting *places* to protecting *processes*. --- ## Discussion > Should conservation shift from protecting **places** to protecting **processes** under climate change? --- ## Further Reading - Hannah et al. (2020) *Protected Areas and Climate Change*. - Watson et al. (2014) *The performance and potential of protected areas*. - CBD (2022) *Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework*. --- class: middle ## Take-home >** > - ** >** --- class: center, middle # Thanks! Slides created via the R packages: [**xaringan**](https://github.com/yihui/xaringan)<br> [gadenbuie/xaringanthemer](https://github.com/gadenbuie/xaringanthemer) The chakra comes from [remark.js](https://remarkjs.com), [**knitr**](http://yihui.name/knitr), and [R Markdown](https://rmarkdown.rstudio.com).